Early Voter Turnout Surges GOP Holds Lead In Battleground States
The truth is no one knows what's going to happen. Will the pink hats win out or the red hats? Make your call, and it will probably be about as good as the predictions made by pollsters.
Of course the polls have been pointing to a Dem victory generally. Without doubt the anti-Trump people are fired up. It's hard to imagine many of the folks who have spent the last 2 years wailing away on social media just giving this election a pass.
And if the Democrats take the House look for Mueller to move quickly in an effort to capitalize on any momentum he can.
Right now Democrats are hoping for a bright Christmas, or "holiday season", or winter solstice or whatever this year. It's theirs for the taking.
But if they don't win, if the Dems don't pull through, there is going to be some SERIOUS soul searching at Thanksgiving. And it will have a different flavor than Thanksgiving 2016. The turkey will be even more bitter.
The uncertainty among the professional forecasting class, which is still stinging from their embarrassingly wrong predictions in the 2016 presidential vote and the Brexit vote, 538's Nate Silver said that, while his models project Democrats have a 80% chance of retaking the House, in reality, the odds may be closer to 50-50.
"The range of outcomes in the House is really wide," he explained. "Our range, which covers 80 percent of outcomes goes from, on the low end, about 15 Democratic pickups, all the way to low to mid 50s, 52 or 53."