Wages jump by 3.1%, highest level in a decade
Say what one wants about the economy, and put us in the very cautious camp, the Fed driven expansion is creating malinvestment and a reckoning will come, perhaps worse than 2008. But saying that, there is no doubt that things stand in stark contrast to the dour days of the Obama era. There is a sense that America wants to (and can) do business again. And that is what we do in this country, we're not France, we do business. Obama never got this.
Consider that on the airwaves in the small city in which we live are filled with ads for Christmastime work. The companies advertising the jobs are even offering SIGNING BONUSES of a few hundred dollars. We remember the Christmases of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, and so on. There weren't any signing bonuses. There weren't any jobs.
It is interesting though that some people still lack enthusiasm. I spoke to someone this week who said that she feared that the country was in dire straights. Worse than any time in her life. And I had to wonder about the prism through which she was seeing the world. This person didn't like Trump and yes things have been chaotic for a long time, but we'll take 2018 America over the Obama era any day. There is no comparison. Yet unhappiness generally for some.
As we said however we are very cautious. Recessions always come and given Fed policy we suggest making hay while the sun shines. But at least the sun is shining a bit. It feels nice. Enjoy it while we can.
"The employment cost index data adds to the broader evidence that wage growth has continued to trend gradually higher over recent quarters," Michael Pearce, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note. "And with labor market conditions still tightening, we expect wage growth will accelerate further from here."
The wage data came the same day that ADP and Moody's reported private payroll growth of 227,000 in October, easily beating Wall Street expectations.